Curve fitting is a process of finding a mathematical model that best approximates a set of data points. The method of least squares is a widely used technique for curve fitting, aiming to minimize the sum of the squared differences between the observed data points and the values predicted by the model.
Linear Curve Fitting
In linear curve fitting, we seek to find the best-fitting straight line that describes the relationship between the dependent variable yy and the independent variable xx. The linear equation has the form:
y=mx+by = mx + b
where:
•mm is the slope of the line, representing the rate of change of yy with respect to xx.
•bb is the y-intercept, the value of yy when xx is 0.
Adjust the slider for the best-fitting straight line
Given a set of nn data points (x_(i),y_(i))(x_i, y_i), the objective of linear curve fitting is to find the values of mm and bb that minimize the sum of the squared residuals (differences between the actual y_(i)y_i and the predicted values mx_(i)+bmx_i + b):
We want to find a linear equation of the form y=mx+by = mx + b that best fits this data.
Solution:
Step 1: Set up the equations
The linear equation to fit the data is: y=mx+by = mx + b. We want to find the values of mm and bb that minimize the sum of squared differences between the observed yy-values and the predicted yy-values from the equation.
For each data point (x_(i),y_(i))(x_i, y_i), we have the following equation:
y_(i)=mx_(i)+by_i = mx_i + b
Step 2: Formulate the system of equations
For our given data points, we have five equations: {:[1.quad3=m xx1+b],[2.quad5=m xx2+b],[3.quad7=m xx3+b],[4.quad10=m xx4+b],[5.quad12=m xx5+b]:}\begin{align*}
1. &\quad 3 = m \times 1 + b \\
2. &\quad 5 = m \times 2 + b \\
3. &\quad 7 = m \times 3 + b \\
4. &\quad 10 = m \times 4 + b \\
5. &\quad 12 = m \times 5 + b \\
\end{align*}
Step 3: Use the Method of Least Squares
The method of least squares involves finding the values of mm and bb that minimize the sum of the squares of the vertical distances (residuals) between the observed data points and the corresponding points on the fitted line.
To minimize the sum of squared residuals, we take the partial derivatives of the sum of squared residuals with respect to mm and bb and set them equal to zero. Solving these equations will give us the values of mm and bb that minimize the sum of squared residuals.
Let's define the sum of squared residuals (SSR) as:
By solving the above equations, we can obtain the values of mm and bb that minimize the sum of squared residuals.
After solving the system of equations, we get:
m~~2.3m \approx 2.3
b~~0.6b \approx 0.6
So, the best-fitting linear equation is: y~~2.3 x+0.6y \approx 2.3x + 0.6.
Step 5: Plot the linear curve on a graph
To visualize the linear curve fit, we can plot it on a graph along with the original data points.
In conclusion, by using the method of least squares, we found the equation y~~2.3 x+0.6y \approx 2.3x + 0.6 that best fits the given data points.
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Solving Linear Curve Fitting by Simplified Approach
Let's consider a set of data points representing the relationship between an independent variable xx and a dependent variable yy.
The general equation for a linear function is:
y=mx+by = mx + b
where mm is the slope and bb is the y-intercept of the line.
Step 1: Calculate the necessary sums
Calculate the following sums from the given data:
•sum x\sum x: The sum of all xx-values in the dataset.
•sum y\sum y: The sum of all yy-values in the dataset.
•sum xy\sum xy: The sum of the products of each xx-value and its corresponding yy-value.
•sumx^(2)\sum x^2: The sum of the squares of all xx-values in the dataset.
Step 2: Calculate the slope (mm) and y-intercept (bb)
Using the following formulas, we can calculate the slope (mm) and y-intercept (bb) for the best-fitting line:
m=(n sum xy-sum x sum y)/(n sumx^(2)-(sum x)^(2))m = \frac{n \sum xy - \sum x \sum y}{n \sum x^2 - (\sum x)^2}
b=(sum y-m sum x)/(n)b = \frac{\sum y - m \sum x}{n}
where nn is the number of data points.
Step 3: Interpretation and plotting
The calculated values of mm and bb represent the slope and y-intercept of the best-fitting line that approximates the data. The best-fitting linear equation is then y=mx+by = mx + b.
To visualize the linear curve fit, we can plot the line y=mx+by = mx + b on a graph along with the original data points.
EXAMPLE:-
Suppose we have the following set of data points representing the relationship between xx and yy:
where a_(n),a_(n-1),dots,a_(0)a_n, a_{n-1}, \ldots, a_0 are the coefficients to be determined.
For polynomial curve fitting, the goal is to find the values of the coefficients a_(n),a_(n-1),dots,a_(0)a_n, a_{n-1}, \ldots, a_0 that minimize the sum of the squared residuals:
This applet can be used to enter data, see the scatter plot and view two polynomial fittings in the data (for comparison), If only one fit is desired enter 0 for Degree of Fit2 (or Fit1). If a data value is wrongly entered, select the correct check box and use use appropriate correct button to delete the (last) wrongly entered value. Selecting show fits check box displays equations as well as graphs. Selecting Instructions check box displays instructions.
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Nonlinear Curve Fitting
In cases where the relationship between the variables is nonlinear, a general nonlinear equation is used for curve fitting. The nonlinear equation may not have a simple analytical form, and its parameters need to be estimated from the data.
For nonlinear curve fitting, we have a model with parameters theta\theta (e.g., theta_(1),theta_(2),dots\theta_1, \theta_2, \ldots). The goal is to find the values of theta\theta that minimize the sum of the squared residuals:
"minimize"sum_(i=1)^(n)(y_(i)-f(x_(i),theta))^(2)\begin{equation*}
\text{minimize} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \left(y_i - f(x_i, \theta)\right)^2
\end{equation*}
where f(x_(i),theta)f(x_i, \theta) is the function that relates x_(i)x_i and y_(i)y_i with the parameters theta\theta.
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Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a fundamental concept in statistics that allows us to make decisions about a population based on sample data. It helps us determine if there is enough evidence to support or reject a claim (hypothesis) about a population parameter.
Key Components
"Null Hypothesis ("(H_(0))"):"\textbf{Null Hypothesis (\(H_0\)):} This is the initial assumption that there is no significant difference or effect. It represents the status quo and is usually denoted by H_(0)H_0.
"Alternative Hypothesis ("(H_(a))"):"\textbf{Alternative Hypothesis (\(H_a\)):} This is the claim or statement we want to investigate and determine if there is enough evidence to support. It opposes the null hypothesis and is denoted by H_(a)H_a.
Types of Hypotheses
•"One-Tailed (or One-Sided) Hypothesis:"\textbf{One-Tailed (or One-Sided) Hypothesis:} This type of hypothesis test focuses on either a positive or negative effect. It is denoted as H_(a):mu > mu_(0)H_a: \mu > \mu_0 (right-tailed) or H_(a):mu < mu_(0)H_a: \mu < \mu_0 (left-tailed), where mu\mu is the population mean and mu_(0)\mu_0 is the hypothesized value.
•"Two-Tailed Hypothesis:"\textbf{Two-Tailed Hypothesis:} This type of hypothesis test is more general and looks for any significant difference, regardless of the direction. It is denoted as H_(a):mu!=mu_(0)H_a: \mu \neq \mu_0.
Steps for Hypothesis Testing
"Formulate Hypotheses:"\textbf{Formulate Hypotheses:} Define the null and alternative hypotheses based on the research question.
"Select Significance Level ("alpha"):"\textbf{Select Significance Level (\(\alpha\)):} The significance level is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. Common choices include 0.05 (5%) or 0.01 (1%).
"Choose a Test Statistic:"\textbf{Choose a Test Statistic:} The choice of test statistic depends on the type of data and the specific hypothesis test.
"Calculate the Test Statistic:"\textbf{Calculate the Test Statistic:} Using the sample data, compute the value of the test statistic.
"Determine the Critical Region:"\textbf{Determine the Critical Region:} This is the region of extreme values of the test statistic that leads to the rejection of the null hypothesis.
"Compare Test Statistic with Critical Value:"\textbf{Compare Test Statistic with Critical Value:} If the test statistic falls within the critical region, reject the null hypothesis. Otherwise, fail to reject the null hypothesis.
Common Test Statistics
•"Z-Test:"\textbf{Z-Test:} Used when the population standard deviation (sigma\sigma) is known, and the sample size is sufficiently large.
•"T-Test:"\textbf{T-Test:} Used when the population standard deviation (sigma\sigma) is unknown or the sample size is small (n < 30n < 30).
Formula (for one-sample t-test): t=(( bar(X))-mu)/(s//sqrtn)t = \frac{\bar{X} - \mu}{s/\sqrt{n}}, where ss is the sample standard deviation.
•"Chi-Square Test ("(chi^(2))"):"\textbf{Chi-Square Test (\(\chi^2\)):} Used for categorical data to test independence or goodness of fit.
Formula: chi^(2)=sum((O-E)^(2))/(E)\chi^2 = \sum \frac{(O - E)^2}{E}, where OO is the observed frequency and EE is the expected frequency.
•"F-Test:"\textbf{F-Test:} Used to compare the variance of two or more samples.
Formula (for two-sample F-test): F=(s_(1)^(2))/(s_(2)^(2))F = \frac{s_1^2}{s_2^2}, where s_(1)^(2)s_1^2 and s_(2)^(2)s_2^2 are the sample variances.
Remember, hypothesis testing helps us draw conclusions based on evidence from sample data. Always interpret the results in the context of the problem and use statistical significance as a guide for decision-making.
Question: A company claims that the average response time of their customer support team is 10 minutes. To test this claim, a random sample of 36 customer support interactions was taken, and the average response time was found to be 12 minutes, with a sample standard deviation of 3 minutes. Conduct a hypothesis test using a two-tailed Z-test at a 5% significance level to determine if there is enough evidence to reject the company's claim.
Solution:-
Step 1: Formulate Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis (H_(0)H_0): The average response time of the customer support team is equal to 10 minutes.
H_(0):mu=10H_0: \mu = 10
Alternative Hypothesis (H_(a)H_a): The average response time of the customer support team is not equal to 10 minutes.
H_(a):mu!=10H_a: \mu \neq 10
Step 2: Select Significance Level
In this case, the significance level (alpha\alpha) is given as 0.05 (5%).
Step 3: Choose a Test Statistic
Since the population standard deviation is unknown, we will use the Z-test for the mean.
mu\mu = Population mean under the null hypothesis (10 minutes)
sigma\sigma = Population standard deviation (unknown)
nn = Sample size (36)
Step 5: Determine the Critical Region
Since this is a two-tailed test, we need to find the critical Z-values for a 5% significance level.
For a two-tailed test at 5% significance level, we divide the significance level by 2 to get 2.5% on each tail. Using a Z-table or calculator, we find the critical Z-values to be approximately -1.96 and +1.96.
Step 6: Compare Test Statistic with Critical Value
Since the calculated Z-value (4) is greater than the critical Z-values (-1.96 and 1.96), we reject the null hypothesis.
Step 7: Conclusion
There is enough evidence to reject the company's claim that the average response time of their customer support team is 10 minutes. The data suggests that the average response time is significantly different from 10 minutes.